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Assignment 6: Forecasting
Introduction
This assignment assesses your knowledge o
Assignment 6: Forecasting
Introduction
This assignment assesses your knowledge of applying time series decomposition techniques to a time series data using Excel.
Instructions
Submit your answers to all of the questions in a Word document. Download the data sets and use Excel to solve the problems.
Question 1. A national supplier of jet fuel is interested in forecasting its sales. Download the sales data Download Download the sales datafor the periods 2001, Q1 to 2016, Q4.
Plot these sales against time. What, if any, seasonal pattern do you see in the plot? Explain.
Deseasonalize the data by calculating the centered moving average. Plot the deseasonalized data on the graph created in (a). Calculate the seasonal index for each quarter. Write a short explanation of why the results make sense.
Develop a trend for the data USING deseasonalized SALES (NOT ACTUAL SALES) and plot that trend line on the graph developed in (a). Compare the deseasonalized sales data and the trend line. Does there appear to be a cyclical pattern in the data? Explain.
For the historical period, plot the values estimated by the time series decomposition model with the original data.
Make a forecast of sales for the four quarters of 2017. Using the actual data for that year given in the table, calculate the RMSE:
The quarterly sales of the Jet Fuel for the previous four quarters are presented in the table:
JET FUEL SALES
QuarterForecastActualSquared Error
2017Q1 66.81
2017Q2 77.52
2017Q3 82.76
2017Q4 74.51
Sum of Squared Errors=
Mean-squared Errors=
Root Mean-Squared Errors=
Submission
Submit your answers in a Word document.
Submit the Excel files to show your calculations.
Include the relevant graphs of actual and forecast values of the series. Please do not forget to title your graph.
Submit your calculations and answers in a 1–3-page document and spreadsheet to the Dropbox by Day 7 of the week.
Evaluation Criteria
All forecasting assignments together make up 24% of the total course score. This assignment is worth 40 points. Here is the rubric Download rubricfor the assignment.
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Forecasting Assignment Rubric
Forecasting Assignment Rubric
CriteriaRatingsPts
Evidence the problem was understood6 pts
Exemplary Performance
Shows very good understanding of the problem and its solution technique4 pts
At or Above Average
Shows sound understanding of the problem2 pts
At or Below Average
Shows limited understanding of the problem0 pts
Low Performance
Shows very limited or no understanding of the problem/ 6 pts
Technique
10 pts
Exemplary Performance
Very effective use of technique; uses forecasting techniques efficiently while justifying the solution7.5 pts
At or Above Average
Effective use of technique; uses appropriate technique, but some parts of the technique or summary statistics left unexplained5 pts
At or Below Average
Limited use of appropriate techniques; is not precise in using forecasting technique2.5 pts
Low Performance
Very limited use of technique; uses unsuitable techniques or simple manipulation of the data in attempting to find a solution/ 10 pts
Answer
10 pts
Exemplary Performance
All correct answers, all requested explanations perfectly presented7.5 pts
At or Above Average
Most answers correct, but incomplete explanations or incorrect reasoning5 pts
At or Below Average
Most answers incorrect, appropriate techniques2.5 pts
Low Performance
Incorrect answers, inappropriate techniques/ 10 pts
Completion
8 pts
Exemplary Performance
All parts of the assignment completed6 pts
At or Above Average
Most parts of the assignment completed4 pts
At or Below Average
Some parts of the assignment completed2 pts
Low Performance
Few to no parts of assignment completed/ 8 pts
Organization and Neatness
6 pts
Exemplary Performance
Clear organization with few or no grammar or spelling errors4 pts
At or Above Average
Clear organization with some grammar or spelling errors2 pts
At or Below Average
Clear organization with significant grammar and spelling errors0 pts
Low Performance
Unclear organization with significant grammar and spelling errors/ 6 pts
Total Points: 0
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