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Company is LVMH! I’m attaching all the data that can be used
Create a plot for
Company is LVMH! I’m attaching all the data that can be used
Create a plot for the variable in prices or levels and describe it using some descriptive statistics.
Transform your data into returns, do the same for returns.
To determine trends, you can use Moving average using very large windows of estimation
To determine seasons/cycles you can analyse the data taking of trends and see if there is any periodicity (usually every year/quarter for monthly data, every month/quarter for weekly data, every week/month for daily data)
To decompose your data set in periods it depends on the sample, you can choose to analyse different years or different months….
A sample is usually decomposed into estimation and test period using 80% of the data to estimate and 20% to test. Remember that good statistics are computed with minimum 40 points.
Try to use 3 different methods (from smoothing and forecasting but excluding linear). Apply the methods to the estimation period to forecast the values in the test period.
Use linear regression estimated from the estimation period, keep the coefficients to apply them to the X variable in the test period.
Try to use similar periods of estimation and test for the different forecasting methods
Compute the different forecast error measures and compare them. Try to conclude if there a better forecasting method.
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